WhiteHouse.gov Blog Feed: Council of Economic Advisers

The Employment Situation in April

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 03 May 2013 13:30:55 +0000

While more work remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to recover from the worst downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we remain focused on pursuing policies to speed job creation and expand the middle class, as we continue to dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007.

Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private sector businesses added 176,000 jobs last month. Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 165,000 jobs in April. The February and March employment estimates were revised up by a total of 114,000 jobs. The economy has now added private sector jobs every month for 38 straight months, and a total of 6.8 million jobs has been added over that period. Over 800,000 private sector jobs have been added over the last four months.

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate edged down from 7.6 percent in March to 7.5 percent in April, the lowest rate since December 2008. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 63.3 percent in April.

Now is not the time for Washington to impose self-inflicted wounds on the economy. The Administration continues to urge Congress to replace the sequester with balanced deficit reduction, while working to put in place measures to create middle-class jobs, such as by rebuilding our roads and bridges and promoting American manufacturing. The President will continue to press Congress to act on the measures he called for in his State of the Union address to make America a magnet for good jobs, help workers earn the skills they need to do those jobs, and make sure their hard work leads to a decent living.

According to the establishment survey, in April employment rose notably in professional and business services (+73,000), bars and restaurants (+37,900), retail trade (+29,300), and health care and social assistance (+26,100). Construction declined by 6,000 (due to a fall in nonresidential construction employment), after growing for 10 consecutive months and adding 181,000 jobs in that period.

As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and payroll employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.

Alan B. Krueger is Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers

Chairman Alan Krueger Addresses “Fairness as an Economic Force” before a Conference at Oberlin College

David Vandiver — Tue, 30 Apr 2013 21:34:02 +0000

On April 26, 2013, President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Alan B. Krueger, delivered remarks on “Fairness as an Economic Force” at a conference on “Learning and Labor Economics” at Oberlin College in Oberlin, Ohio.

Read Chairman Krueger’s Remarks HERE.

Read the excerpts of Chairman Krueger’s remarks HERE.

Advance Estimate of GDP for the First Quarter of 2013

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 26 Apr 2013 13:30:25 +0000

Today’s report indicates that the economy posted its fifteenth straight quarter of positive growth, as real GDP (the total amount of goods and services produced in the country) grew at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of this year, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Over the last fifteen quarters, the economy has expanded by 8.3 percent overall, and the private components of GDP have grown by 12.2 percent. Real GDP is now 3.2 percent larger than it was at the previous business cycle peak in 2007:Q4. While there is more work to be done, this report, together with other economic indicators, provides further evidence that the economy is moving forward in the right direction.

It is important to recognize that GDP is made up of various components. Personal consumption expenditures, for example, rose by 3.2 percent at an annual rate in 2013:Q1, the fastest rate in over two years. Residential investment grew by 12.6 percent last quarter and has increased for eight quarters in a row, its longest streak since 2004-2005. Federal defense spending fell 11.5 percent at an annual rate in 2013:Q1, while federal nondefense spending declined at a 2.0 percent rate and state and local government purchases fell at a 1.2 percent rate.

The “advance" estimate of first quarter GDP growth encompasses the first month after sequestration began on March 1. It is likely that the contraction in Federal defense and non-defense spending, at least in part, reflects the onset of sequestration. These arbitrary and unnecessary cuts to government services will be a headwind in the months to come, and will cut key investments in the nation’s future competitiveness. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the sequester will reduce GDP growth by 0.6 percentage point for the year.

Now is not the time for Washington to impose self-inflicted wounds on the economy. The Administration continues to urge Congress to replace the sequester with balanced deficit reduction, while working to put in place measures to put more Americans back to work, like rebuilding our roads and bridges and promoting American manufacturing. The President will continue to work with Congress to act on measures he called for in the State of the Union to promote job growth, ensure workers have the skills they need to compete, and help hardworking Americans make a decent living.

Alan B. Krueger is the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors

The Employment Situation in March

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 13:45:51 +0000

While more work remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to recover from the worst downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we continue the policies that are helping to build an economy that creates jobs and works for the middle class as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007.

Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private sector businesses added 95,000 jobs last month. Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 88,000 jobs in March. The February and March employment numbers were revised up by a total of 61,000 jobs. The economy has now added private sector jobs every month for 37 straight months, and a total of nearly 6.5 million jobs has been added over that period.

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate fell from 7.7 percent in February to 7.6 percent in March, the lowest since December 2008. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 63.3 percent in March.

It is important to bear in mind that the March household and payroll surveys are the first monthly surveys to look at employment since the beginning of sequestration. While the recovery was gaining traction before sequestration took effect, these arbitrary and unnecessary cuts to government services will be a headwind in the months to come, and will cut key investments in the Nation’s future competitiveness. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the sequester will reduce employment by 750,000 full-time equivalent jobs by the end of the year.

Now is not the time for Washington to impose more self-inflicted wounds on the economy. The Administration continues to urge Congress to replace the sequester with balanced deficit reduction, while working to put in place measures to put more Americans back to work like rebuilding our roads and bridges and promoting American manufacturing. The President will continue to press Congress to act on measures he called for in the State of the Union to promote job growth, ensure workers have the skills they need to compete, and help hardworking Americans make a decent living.

According to the establishment survey, in March employment rose notably in professional and business services (+51,000), education and health services (+44,000), construction (+18,000), and leisure and hospitality (+17,000). Retail trade lost 24,100 jobs in March, following 8 months of growth. Job gains in construction have added 169,000 jobs since September. In the last two years the construction sector has added 317,000 jobs, with over half of that increase occurring in the last six months.

Alan B. Krueger is Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.

The Third Anniversary of the Affordable Care Act

Alan B. Krueger — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 18:30:20 +0000

This month marks the third anniversary of the passage of the Affordable Care Act. Provisions of the Act have already helped millions of young adults obtain health insurance coverage and have made preventive services more affordable for most Americans. When fully implemented, the law will expand coverage to an estimated 27 million previously uninsured Americans and ensure the availability of affordable coverage through traditional employer-sponsored insurance and the new Health Insurance Marketplaces (often referred to as Exchanges).

This blog post and the accompanying report describe progress toward slowing the growth of health care costs and improving the efficiency of the health care system.

Growth in Health Care Costs Has Already Begun to Slow

There are signs that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has already started to help slow the growth of health care costs and improve the quality of care through value-based purchasing programs, strengthened primary care and care coordination, and pioneering Medicare payment reforms. For each year from 2009 to 2011, National Health Expenditure data show the real rate of annual growth in overall health spending was between 3.0 and 3.1 percent, the lowest rates since reporting began in 1960.

With the exception of a spike in 2006, the year Medicare Part D was introduced, the growth rate of Medicare spending per enrollee—a measure of health care spending intensity—has been on a downward trend since 2001, with a particularly significant slowdown over the past three years (see Figure 1). While Medicare enrollment is expected to increase 3 percent a year over the next decade, the rate of growth in spending per enrollee is now projected to be approximately the same as the rate of growth of GDP per capita, according to the CBO and Office of the Actuary at CMS.

Though the Great Recession may have contributed to the trend of slower health care cost growth, it is only part of the explanation because the trend began before the recession took hold, and has continued thus far into the recovery. Moreover, the cross-state pattern of spending does not suggest that higher unemployment accounted for the entire trend. Likewise, Medicare costs have not slowed more in states that were hit harder by the recession, suggesting that the recession was not the cause of slower Medicare cost growth; indeed, states with a greater rise in unemployment experienced faster Medicare spending per enrollee, suggesting that larger forces than the recession were responsible for the slowdown in Medicare cost growth.

Provisions in the Affordable Care Act are Helping to Make Spending More Efficient

The ACA includes a series of provisions designed to reduce spending while improving the quality of care in the health care system. Relevant provisions include efforts to foster coordinated care, improve primary care, reduce preventable health complications during hospitalizations, and promote the adoption of advanced health information technology.

Early responses to the ACA may have already contributed to the decline in per enrollee spending since 2010. For example, the decline in the hospital readmission rate in Medicare, coinciding with the introduction of the Partnership for Patients program in 2011, points to early effects of the ACA on spending. Likewise, infrastructure investments and care process changes, either funded directly by the ACA or stimulated through the ACA’s payment reform, may also have slowed the growth of health care spending.

The ACA has also established initiatives that reduce the spending inefficiencies in Medicare due to the traditional fee-for-service incentives and fragmentation across providers, by aligning financial incentives to encourage provider organizations to deliver higher-quality, more efficient medical care. Already, 4 million Medicare beneficiaries receive care from the more than 250 Accountable Care Organizations that have been created by physicians across the country to take responsibility for the cost and quality of care for their patients over time. The ACA also created the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation, which is charged with identifying new and effective systems of delivering and paying for care. Initiatives within the CMS Innovation Center include accountable care organization shared savings models, as well as bundled payments to hospitals and post-acute-care providers.

Is the Cost Curve Bending?

The long-run growth rate of per-capita health care spending has significant implications for the budget. Medicare spending represented 3.7 percent of GDP in 2011. Under current law, including cost control measures of the ACA and the Sustainable Growth Rate-mandated physician payment cut, CMS projects that Medicare spending will rise to represent 6.7 percent of GDP in 75 years, with long-term nominal per-beneficiary spending growing at a rate on average equal to 4.3 percent per year (Medicare Trustees 2012).

However, nominal growth rates of per-beneficiary Medicare spending have been declining since 2001, and over the past five years have averaged 3.6 percent per year. At least some of the recent decline in Medicare spending growth appears to be structural, implying that the low spending growth rates from the past few years may persist. To illustrate the potential importance of policies that slow the growth of health care spending, if we hypothetically assume that the per-beneficiary growth rate of Medicare spending were to remain 3.6 percent per year, then after 75 years Medicare spending would account for only 3.8 percent of GDP, little changed from its share today, and substantially less than what the Medicare Trustees project (see Figure 2). This hypothetical calculation should not be interpreted as a forecast but rather an indication of how sensitive long-term projections are to the assumed rate of growth of Medicare spending per beneficiary. In this hypothetical scenario, where per-beneficiary Medicare spending grows at a rate equal to the one observed over the past five years, Medicare spending as a share of GDP would be much lower than what current long-term projections suggest.

As health economist David Cutler recently noted, trends in the health system

“…suggest that the health care cost curve may be bending more rapidly than official forecasts project… Policy changes to reduce Medicare and Medicaid spending will continue to be a priority (the President suggested reforms in his State of the Union address), and revenue increases will almost certainly be necessary. But these observations suggest that we need to continue doing what has been successful in reducing growth in health care spending rather than pursue a radical rethinking of those programs’ operations.”

All of this is to say we’ve made progress toward our goals, thanks in large part to the ACA. Still, there remains work to be done, which is why the President has proposed sensible reforms to health programs to build on the savings we’re already beginning to realize from the Affordable Care Act.

Download the report: The Affordable Care Act and Trends in Health Care Spending

Alan Krueger is Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers

Chairman Alan Krueger Speaks to the Economic Case for Commonsense Immigration Reform at the US Hispanic Chamber of Commerce

David Vandivier — Wed, 20 Mar 2013 13:43:59 +0000

On March 19, 2013, President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Alan B. Krueger, delivered remarks on “The Economic Case for Commonsense Immigration Reform” at the US Hispanic Chamber of Commerce’s 2013 Legislative Summit in Washington, DC.

Read Chairman Krueger’s Remarks HERE.

Read the Fact Sheet on The Economic Case for Commonsense Immigration Reform HERE.

A Preview of the 2013 Economic Report of the President

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 15 Mar 2013 13:00:24 +0000

This year's Economic Report of the President describes the progress we have made recovering from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. After years of grueling recession, our businesses have created over six million new jobs. As a nation, we now buy more American cars than we have in 5 years, and less foreign oil than we have in 20 years. Our housing market is healing, and homeowners and consumers enjoy stronger protections than ever before. But there are still millions of Americans whose hard work and dedication have not yet been rewarded. Our economy is adding jobs, but too many of our fellow citizens still can't find fulltime employment. Corporate profits have reached all-time highs, but for more than a decade, wages and incomes for working Americans have barely budged. As President Obama has said, "A growing economy that creates good, middle-class jobs–that must be the North Star that guides our efforts."

Although economics has long been called "the dismal science," it is more appropriately viewed as a "hopeful science." The right mix of economic policies and leadership can help a country to recover from a deep recession and point to the investments and reforms that will build a stronger, more stable, and more prosperous economy that works for the middle class. Conversely, government dysfunction or misguided fiscal policy can cause self-inflicted wounds to the economy. This year's Economic Report of the President highlights the progress that has been made in recovering from the deepest recession since the Great Depression, together with the policies that the Obama Administration is advancing to address the fundamental imbalances and threats that have built up for decades and that have created severe stress on the middle class and those striving to get into the middle class.

This Report reviews the progress of the ongoing economic recovery during 2012 and highlights the main goals of the President's economic agenda. These goals include strengthening the foundations of economic growth by investing in education, research, and infrastructure, and by fixing a broken immigration system through commonsense immigration reform; ensuring fairness for the middle class by reforming the tax code and health insurance system; and bolstering the economy's resilience to future challenges by addressing the dangers of climate change, moving toward energy independence, pursuing a balanced approach to deficit reduction, adding safeguards to the financial system, opening up new markets for U.S. exports, and equipping American workers to compete in the global economy.

Finally, given the importance of economic data in driving economic policy and in helping households and businesses to make sound decisions, this year's Economic Report of the President continues the tradition of highlighting areas where economic data have improved or could improve further.

To read the entire Report, click HERE.

The Employment Situation in February

Alan Krueger — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 14:31:12 +0000

While more work remains to be done, today’s employment report provides evidence that the recovery that began in mid-2009 is gaining traction. Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private sector businesses added 246,000 jobs in February. Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 236,000 jobs last month. The economy has now added private sector jobs every month for three straight years, and a total of 6.35 million jobs have been added over that period.

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate fell from 7.9 percent in January to 7.7 percent in February, the lowest since December 2008. The labor force participation rate edged down 0.1 percentage point to 63.5 percent in February.

It is important to bear in mind that the reference period for today’s surveys was the week of February 10-16 for the household survey and the pay period containing February 12th for the establishment survey, both of which were before sequestration began. The Administration continues to urge Congress to move toward a sustainable Federal budget in a responsible way that balances tax loophole closing, entitlement reform, and sensible spending cuts, while making critical investments in the economy that promote growth and job creation and protecting our most vulnerable citizens.

According to the establishment survey, in February employment rose notably in professional and business services (+73,000), construction (+48,000), health care (+32,000), leisure and hospitality (+24,000), and retail trade (+23,700). Manufacturing gained 14,000 jobs in February. The manufacturing sector has added over half a million jobs over the last 37 months, the most for any such period since 1986. In the last two years the construction sector has added 306,000 jobs, with half of that increase occurring in the last five months. State and local governments lost 10,000 jobs in February, mostly in education. The local government education sector has now lost 340,700 jobs since its recent peak in November 2009.

Chairman Alan Krueger Discusses “The Economic Case for a Balanced Approach to Fiscal Policy” at the 2013 NABE Economic Policy Conference

David Vandiver — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 16:45:25 +0000

At 11:45 am ET on Tuesday, March 5, 2013, President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Alan B. Krueger, delivered remarks on “The Case for a Balanced Approach to Fiscal Policy” at the 2013 NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, DC.

In his prepared remarks, Chairman Krueger said: "… a balanced approach to deficit reduction is good economic policy, justified by considerations of both efficiency and fairness. Deficit reduction that balances spending cuts, entitlement reform and loophole closing is also in the interest of the macroeconomy and economic growth. Economists should reject the position that says no revenues can be raised from closing unjustified tax loopholes in order to finish the job of stabilizing our finances and strengthening our economy.”

Click here to see Chairman Krueger’s remarks and charts used.

Open for Questions: The State of the Union and the Economy

Megan Slack — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 22:15:18 +0000

Today, Alan Krueger, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, answered questions from the public about President Obama's State of the Union Address in an “Open for Questions” session moderated by Yahoo! Finance. Check it out below.

Watch President Obama's 2013 State of the Union Address and share your Citizen Response.

More Open for Questions sessions from the 2013 State of the Union

The Employment Situation in January

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 14:30:03 +0000

While more work remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to heal from the wounds inflicted by the worst downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we pursue the policies needed to build an economy that works for the middle class as we continue to dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007.

Today’s report is a reminder of the importance of the need for Congress to act to avoid self-inflicted wounds to the economy. The Administration continues to urge Congress to move toward a sustainable Federal budget in a responsible way that balances revenue and spending, and replaces the sequester, while making critical investments in the economy that promote growth and job creation and protect our most vulnerable citizens.

With today’s release, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has finalized its benchmark adjustment, and the latest data show that the economy has now added private sector jobs for 35 straight months, and a total of 6.1 million jobs have been added over that period. In 2012, private businesses added 2.2 million payroll jobs. The first report of private sector job growth for January is that businesses added 166,000 jobs. Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 157,000 jobs last month. The average first report of monthly job growth in 2012 was 142,000, that is now revised to 181,000 jobs per month.

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate was 7.9 percent in January, up from 7.8 percent in December. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 63.6 percent in January. Over the last 12 months, the unemployment rate has fallen by 0.4 percentage point, and the labor force participation rate has been essentially unchanged.

According to the establishment survey, in January employment rose notably in retail trade (+32,600), construction (+28,000), health care and social assistance (+27,600), professional and business services (+25,000), and restaurants and bars (+17,100). Manufacturing gained 4,000 jobs in January. The manufacturing sector has added about a half-million jobs over the last three years, the most for any such period since 1996. Also of note, in the last two years the construction sector has gained nearly 300,000 jobs, with one-third of that gain occurring in the last four months. Government lost 9,000 jobs in January, including 5,000 Federal government jobs, and 4,700 jobs in local government education. The local government education sector has now lost 339,400 jobs since its recent peak in November 2009.

Advance Estimate of GDP for the Fourth Quarter of 2012

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 14:30:31 +0000

According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis today, real GDP edged down 0.1 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2012, amid signs that Hurricane Sandy disrupted economic activity and Federal defense spending declined precipitously, likely due to uncertainty stemming from the sequester. This was the first quarterly drop in real GDP in three-and-a-half years (see first chart below). Over the last fourteen quarters, the economy has expanded by 7.5 percent overall, and the private components of GDP have grown by 10.9 percent. During the four quarters of 2012, real GDP grew by 1.5 percent, the third consecutive year of economic expansion. Over this period, real GDP growth has been led by an expansion in the private sector (see second chart below).

Several private sector components of GDP continued to make positive contributions to growth in the fourth quarter. Personal consumption expenditures, the single largest component of GDP, increased by 2.2 percent at an annual rate in 2012:Q4, as compared with 1.6 percent in the previous quarter. Residential investment grew by 15.3 percent last quarter and has increased for seven consecutive quarters, the longest streak since 2004-2005. Business investment in equipment and software grew at its fastest pace in more than a year, rising 12.4 percent.

Federal defense purchases declined at an annual rate of 22.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, the largest quarterly decline in 40 years. A likely explanation for the sharp decline in Federal defense spending is uncertainty concerning the automatic spending cuts that were scheduled to take effect in January, and are currently scheduled to take effect on March 1^st. The decline in government spending across all levels reduced real GDP by 1.33 percentage points in the quarter.

In addition, a decline in exports of goods and services and slower inventory investment both subtracted from real GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Both international trade flows and inventory accumulation could have been affected by disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy, although a precise estimate of the effect of the hurricane on GDP is not available. Nonetheless, the BEA reported that Hurricane Sandy destroyed $44 billion worth of fixed capital, which indicates one of the storm’s significant economic effects.

Although GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity, other indicators of economic performance suggest that the economy continued to recover in the fourth quarter, despite the impact of Hurricane Sandy and uncertainty surrounding fiscal issues. For instance, at an annual rate, aggregate production-worker hours increased by 2.2 percent and industrial production rose by 1.0 percent. Moreover, as the Administration stresses with each economic report, indicators of economic performance can be volatile and are subject to substantial revision. The average absolute revision from the “advance” estimate of real GDP growth to the most current data is 1.3 percentage points.

Some of the fiscal issues that may have weighed on the economy in the fourth quarter of 2012 were resolved with the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act in early January, which provided more than 98 percent of Americans and 97 percent of small businesses with the certainty that their income taxes will not rise. Today’s report is a reminder of the importance of the need for Congress to act to avoid self-inflicted wounds to the economy. The Administration continues to urge Congress to move toward a sustainable federal budget in a responsible way that balances revenue and spending, and replaces the sequester, while making critical investments in the economy that promote growth and job creation and protect our most vulnerable citizens.

Alan B. Krueger is the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.

The Employment Situation in December

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 04 Jan 2013 14:30:01 +0000

While more work remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to heal from the wounds inflicted by the worst downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we continue the policies that are building an economy that works for the middle class as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007.

With the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act earlier this week, more than 98 percent of Americans and 97 percent of small businesses now have certainty that their income taxes will not rise. Additionally, unemployment insurance was extended for two million Americans who are searching for a job, and companies will continue to receive tax credits for the research that they do and continue to have tax incentives to accelerate investment in their businesses. By allowing income tax cuts for the top two percent of earners to expire, this legislation further reduces the deficit by $737 billion over the next decade. It is important that we continue to move toward a sustainable federal budget in a responsible way that balances revenue and spending while protecting critical investments in the economy and essential support for our most vulnerable citizens.

Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private sector businesses added 168,000 jobs in December. Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 155,000 jobs last month. The economy has now added private sector jobs for 34 straight months, and a total of 5.8 million jobs have been added over that period, taking account of the preliminary benchmark revision. In 2012, private businesses added two million payroll jobs, taking account of the preliminary benchmark revision.

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.8 percent in December. The unemployment rate in November was revised from 7.7 percent to 7.8 percent as a result of BLS’s annual update of seasonal factors. The labor force participation rate was also unchanged at 63.6 percent in December. Over the last 12 months, the unemployment rate has decreased by 0.7 percentage point as a result of growing employment, and the labor force participation rate has been essentially unchanged.

According to the establishment survey, in December employment rose notably in the health care and social assistance industry (+55,000), restaurants and bars (+38,000), construction (+30,000), and manufacturing (+25,000). The manufacturing sector has added jobs in 30 of the last 35 months, gaining half a million jobs over that period, the most for any such period since the late-1980s. Payrolls rose in both residential and non-residential construction jobs. Retail trade lost 11,300 jobs, following gains totaling 161,300 over the previous four months. Government lost 13,000 jobs in December, mostly in local government education, which lost 11,500 jobs. The local government education sector has now lost 294,400 jobs since its recent peak in November 2009.

The Employment Situation in November

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 14:30:30 +0000

While more work remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to heal from the wounds inflicted by the worst downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we continue the policies that are building an economy that works for the middle class as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007.

Most pressing, President Obama has proposed, and the Senate has passed, an extension of middle class income tax cuts that would prevent the typical middle class family from facing a $2,200 tax increase at the beginning of next year. In addition, the President has proposed a plan that will enable responsible homeowners to refinance their mortgage and take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates. To create more jobs in particularly hard-hit sectors, President Obama continues to urge Congress to pass elements of the American Jobs Act, including further investment in infrastructure to rebuild our Nation’s ports, roads and highways, and assistance to State and local governments to prevent layoffs and to enable them to rehire hundreds of thousands of teachers.

Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private sector businesses added 147,000 jobs last month. Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 146,000 jobs in November. The economy has now added private sector jobs for 33 straight months, and a total of 5.6 million jobs have been added during that period, taking account of the preliminary benchmark revision.

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate declined from 7.9 percent in October to 7.7 percent in November, the lowest since December 2008. The labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point last month. Over the last 12 months, the unemployment rate has decreased by 1.0 percentage point as a result of growing employment, and the labor force participation rate has been essentially unchanged.

According to the establishment survey, in November employment rose notably in retail trade (+52,600), professional and business services (+43,000), and leisure and hospitality (+23,000). Manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs, and construction was down 20,000. However, the manufacturing sector has added jobs in 28 of the last 34 months, gaining half a million jobs over that period, the most for any such period since the mid-1990s.

Government lost 1,000 jobs, as federal government payrolls decreased by 5,000, state government payrolls increased by 6,000, and local government payrolls declined by 2,000.

As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.

The Employment Situation in October

Fri, 02 Nov 2012 13:30:59 +0000

While more work remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to heal from the wounds inflicted by the worst downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we continue the policies that are building an economy that works for the middle class as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007.

Most pressing, President Obama has proposed, and the Senate has passed, an extension of middle class tax cuts that would prevent the typical middle class family from facing a $2,200 tax increase at the beginning of next year. In addition, the President has proposed a plan that will enable responsible homeowners to refinance their mortgage and take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates. To create more jobs in particularly hard-hit sectors, President Obama continues to urge Congress to pass elements of the American Jobs Act, including further investment in infrastructure to rebuild our Nation’s ports, roads and highways, and assistance to State and local governments to prevent layoffs and to enable them to rehire hundreds of thousands of teachers.

Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private sector businesses added 184,000 jobs last month, the biggest monthly gain in eight months. Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 171,000 jobs in October. Revisions to the previous two months added another 84,000 jobs. The economy has now added private sector jobs for 32 straight months, and a total of 5.4 million jobs have been added during that period, taking account of the preliminary benchmark revision.

Over the last 12 months, the economy has added a total of 2.1 million jobs, as compared to 1.9 million over the preceding 12 months (apportioning the preliminary benchmark revision).

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate ticked up from 7.8 percent in September to 7.9 percent in October, largely because more people entered the labor force. The labor force rose by 578,000 people in October, and the labor force participation rate increased by 0.2 percentage point. The share of the population employed rose by 0.1 percentage point to 58.8 percent. Over the last 12 months, the unemployment rate has decreased by 1.0 percentage point, as a result of growing employment.

According to the establishment survey, in October employment rose notably in professional and business services (+51,000), retail trade (+36,400), health care and social assistance (+32,500), restaurants and bars (+22,900), and construction (+17,000). Manufacturing gained 13,000 jobs, including gains in both durable goods (+5,000) and nondurable goods (+8,000). The manufacturing sector has added jobs in 28 of the last 33 months, gaining half a million jobs over that period, the most for any such period since the mid-1990s.

Government lost 13,000 jobs, as federal government payrolls decreased by 6,000, state government payrolls decreased by 7,000, and local government payrolls were unchanged.

Advance Estimate of GDP for the Third Quarter of 2012

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 26 Oct 2012 13:30:02 +0000

Today’s report shows that the economy posted its thirteenth straight quarter of positive growth, as real GDP (the total amount of goods and services produced in the country) grew at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter of this year, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Over the last thirteen quarters, the economy has expanded by 7.2 percent overall, and the private components of GDP have grown by 10.1 percent. While we have more work to do, together with other economic indicators, this report provides further evidence that the economy is moving in the right direction.

It is important to recognize that GDP is made up of various components. Personal consumption expenditures, for example, increased by 2.0 percent at an annual rate in 2012:Q3, as compared with 1.5 percent in the previous quarter. Residential investment increased by 14.4 percent last quarter and has increased for six quarters in a row, its longest streak since 2004-2005. Federal defense spending rose 13.0 percent, federal nondefense spending rose 3.0 percent, and state and local government purchases were essentially unchanged. The severe drought, which has affected more than half of the country, subtracted 0.4 percentage point from overall GDP growth.

To strengthen economic growth and increase job creation, President Obama has proposed to Congress a plan that would help State and local governments retain and hire teachers and first responders, would assist the construction sector and economy of tomorrow by rebuilding and modernizing our Nation’s infrastructure, and would give small businesses tax cuts to encourage them to increase payroll. President Obama also proposed extending tax cuts to protect middle class families and virtually every small business owner from getting a tax increase at the beginning of next year. Extending these tax cuts would provide more certainty for the economy for 98 percent of American families and 97 percent of small business owners.

Alan B. Krueger is the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.

The Employment Situation in September

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 13:30:34 +0000

While there is more work that remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to heal from the wounds inflicted by the worst downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we continue the policies that are building an economy that works for the middle class as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007.

Most pressing, Congress should pass an extension of middle class tax cuts that President Obama proposed, and the Senate passed. This extension would prevent the typical middle class family from facing a $2,200 tax increase at the beginning of next year. In addition, the President has proposed a plan that will enable responsible homeowners to refinance their mortgage and take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates. To create more jobs in particularly hard-hit sectors, President Obama continues to urge Congress to pass elements of the American Jobs Act, including further investment in infrastructure to rebuild our Nation’s ports, roads and highways, and assistance to State and local governments to prevent layoffs and to enable them to rehire hundreds of thousands of teachers and first responders.

Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private sector establishments added 104,000 jobs last month, and overall non-farm payroll employment rose by 114,000. Revisions to the previous two months added another 86,000 jobs. The economy has now added private sector jobs for 31 straight months. Taking account of the preliminary benchmark revision (+453,000) released last week, the economy has added a total of 5.2 million private sector jobs during that period.

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate fell from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest rate since January 2009. Labor force participation rose by 418,000 people in September, and the labor force participation rate rose by 0.1 percentage point. Over the last 12 months, the unemployment rate has decreased by 1.2 percentage points, the largest drop since February 1995.

Employment rose notably in health care and social assistance (+44,500), transportation and warehousing (+17,100), restaurants and bars (+15,700) financial activities (+13,000), and professional and business services (+13,000). Manufacturing lost 16,000 jobs, primarily in durable goods (-13,000).

Today’s Economic Data

Alan Krueger — Thu, 27 Sep 2012 15:57:22 +0000

More than the usual amount of economic statistics were released this morning. As a whole, today’s economic news shows that while we are still fighting back from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, we are making progress. We lost more than 8 million jobs and GDP contracted by almost 5 percent as a result of the Great Recession. We have more work to do, but incorporating today’s preliminary benchmark revision to the employment figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics with their earlier data indicates that the economy has added nearly 5.1 million private sector jobs, on net, over the past 30 months. BLS announced that total employment likely grew by 386,000 more jobs than previously announced during the 12 months from March 2011 to March 2012, and by 453,000 more private sector jobs in that same time period. In the past decade, the absolute difference between the preliminary and final benchmark revision has averaged 37,000 jobs.

We also saw revised data released today showing that real GDP grew in the second quarter of 2012 by 1.3 percent at an annual rate. Real GDP growth in the second quarter was revised down due, in part, to a downward revision to agriculture inventories as a result of the devastating drought our nation faced this summer. The Obama Administration continues to take all available steps to mitigate the impacts of the drought, and has called on Congress to pass a farm bill that would spur growth and provide rural Americans with the certainty they deserve. We also learned today that the advance report of durable goods orders declined in August, largely as a result of a decline in orders for transportation equipment. Excluding the volatile transportation category, durable goods orders fell by 1.6 percent.

Today’s news shows that we must do more to strengthen our economy and promote job creation. Over a year ago, President Obama proposed the American Jobs Act – a plan that independent economists have said would create up to 2 million jobs. The President will continue to push policies that will continue this progress we have made, including incentives to strengthen the American manufacturing industry, investments in our nation’s infrastructure, and the extension of the tax cuts for 98 percent of Americans and 97 percent of small businesses.

While we are still rebuilding our economy and working to recover from the worst crisis since the Great Depression, we are making progress and the last thing we should do is return to the economic policies that failed us in the past. The revisions announced in today’s reports are a reminder that economic data are subject to large revisions. As a whole the pattern of revisions suggest that the recession that began at the end of 2007 was deeper than initially reported, and the jobs recovery over the last 2.5 years has been a bit stronger than initially reported, although much work remains to be done to return to full employment.

The Employment Situation in August

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 07 Sep 2012 13:30:19 +0000

While there is more work that remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to recover from the worst downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we continue the policies that are building an economy that works for the middle class as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007. To create more jobs in particularly hard-hit sectors, President Obama continues to support the elements of the American Jobs Act that have not yet passed, including further investment in infrastructure to rebuild our Nation’s ports, roads and highways, and assistance to State and local governments to prevent layoffs and to enable them to rehire hundreds of thousands of teachers and first responders. To build on the progress of the last few years, President Obama has also proposed an extension of middle class tax cuts that would prevent the typical middle class family from facing a $2,200 tax increase next year.

Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private sector establishments added 103,000 jobs last month, and overall non-farm payroll employment rose by 96,000. The economy has now added private sector jobs for 30 straight months, for a total of 4.6 million jobs during that period.

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate declined from 8.3 percent to 8.1 percent in August.

Employment rose notably in leisure and hospitality (+34,000), professional and business services (+28,000), health care and social assistance (+21,700), and wholesale trade (+7,900). Manufacturing lost 15,000 jobs, including a 7,500 drop in motor vehicles and parts, which is partly payback for there having been relatively few seasonal auto plant shutdowns in July. Over the past 30 months, manufacturers have added more than 500,000 jobs. Government lost 7,000 jobs, as state government payrolls fell by 6,000 and local governments shed 4,000 jobs. Since February 2010, State and local governments have lost 504,000 jobs.

The Employment Situation in July

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 03 Aug 2012 13:32:38 +0000

While there is more work that remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to recover from the worst downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we continue the policies that build an economy that works for the middle class as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007. To build on the progress of the last few years, President Obama has proposed an extension of middle class tax cuts that would prevent the typical middle class family from facing a $2,200 tax increase next year. In addition, to create more jobs in particularly hard-hit sectors, President Obama continues to support the elements of the American Jobs Act that have not yet passed, including further investment in infrastructure to rebuild our Nation’s ports, roads and highways, and assistance to State and local governments to prevent layoffs and rehire hundreds of thousands of teachers and first responders.

Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private sector establishments added 172,000 jobs last month, and overall non-farm payroll employment rose by 163,000. The economy has now added private sector jobs for 29 straight months, for a total of 4.5 million jobs during that period.

The household survey showed that the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3% in July (or, more precisely, the rate rose from 8.217% in June to 8.254% in July). Acting BLS Commissioner John Galvin noted in his statement that the unemployment rate was “essentially unchanged” from June to July.

The establishment survey indicated that manufacturing employment continues to expand and manufacturers added 25,000 jobs in July. After losing millions of manufacturing jobs in the years before and during the recession, the economy has added 532,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2010 – the strongest growth for any 30-month period since June 1989. Within manufacturing, motor vehicles and parts added 12,800 jobs in July, its strongest monthly growth since January 2011, partly reflecting fewer seasonal layoffs last month. To continue the revival in manufacturing jobs and output, President Obama has proposed tax incentives for manufacturers, enhanced training for the workforce, and measures to create manufacturing hubs and discourage sending jobs overseas.

Other sectors with net job increases included professional and business services (+49,000), education and health services (+38,000), leisure and hospitality (+27,000), and wholesale trade (+9,200). Within leisure and hospitality, restaurant employment rose by 29,400 jobs. Government lost 9,000 jobs as State government payrolls fell by 6,000. Local governments shed 7,000 education jobs. Since February 2010, State and local governments have lost 485,000 jobs.

Chairman Alan Krueger Gives Challenges to the Statistical Community at 2012 American Statistical Association Conference

David Vandivier — Mon, 30 Jul 2012 17:31:38 +0000

On July 30, 2012, President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Alan B. Krueger, delivered remarks on “Six Challenges for the Statistical Community” at the American Statistical Association’s 2012 Joint Statistical Meeting in San Diego, California.

In his remarks, Chairman Krueger gave six challenges that are important for the statistics and policy communities.

Read Chairman Kreuger’s remarks.

Advance Estimate of GDP for the Second Quarter of 2012 and Annual Revision

Alan Krueger — Fri, 27 Jul 2012 13:38:11 +0000

Today’s report shows that the economy posted its twelfth straight quarter of positive growth, as real GDP (the total amount of goods and services produced in the country) grew at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter of this year, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Over the last three years, the economy has expanded by 6.7 percent overall, and the private components of GDP have grown by 9.9 percent. While the economy continues to move in the right direction, additional growth is needed to replace the jobs lost in the deep recession that began at the end of 2007

With today’s report, the BEA also released its annual revisions back to 2009. While the revisions did not meaningfully change the pace of growth over that entire period, it is noteworthy that State and local government purchases were revised up in 2009, which is consistent with the Recovery Act cushioning the effect of the recession and helping to launch the recovery. Since the Recovery Act funds have been phasing out, however, declining State and local government activity has subtracted from GDP. Indeed, today’s report indicates that State and local government purchases have declined for 11 straight quarters, the longest streak ever recorded since the official record of quarterly data began in 1947.

To strengthen economic growth and increase job creation, President Obama has proposed to Congress a plan that would help State and local governments retain and hire teachers and first responders, assist the construction sector and economy of tomorrow by rebuilding and modernizing our Nation’s infrastructure, and would give small businesses tax cuts to encourage them to increase payroll. President Obama also proposed extending tax cuts to protect middle class families and virtually every small business owner from getting a tax increase at the beginning of next year. The Senate passed the President’s plan this week and President Obama has said that as soon as the House will act he will sign it right away in order to give certainty and security to middle class families. Extending these tax cuts would provide more certainty for the economy for 98 percent of American families and 97 percent of small business owners.

The Employment Situation in June

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 14:01:59 +0000

While the economy is continuing to heal from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, much more remains to be done to repair the damage from the financial crisis and deep recession that followed. It is critical that we continue the policies that build an economy that works for the middle class and makes us stronger and more secure as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession. There are no quick fixes to the problems we face that were more than a decade in the making. President Obama has proposals to create jobs by ending tax breaks for companies to ship jobs overseas and supporting State and local governments to prevent layoffs and rehire hundreds of thousands of teachers.

Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that private establishments added 84,000 jobs last month, and overall non-farm payroll employment rose by 80,000. The economy has now added private sector jobs for 28 straight months, for a total of 4.4 million payroll jobs during that period. Employment is growing but it is not growing fast enough given the jobs deficit caused by the deep recession.

The average work week for private sector workers rose by 0.1 hour in June. Aggregate private sector work hours posted their largest gain since February, rising by 0.4 percent. The stronger increase in work hours than in payroll employment suggests that many businesses chose to expand on the intensive margin as opposed to the extensive margin in June.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2 percent in June, according to the BLS household survey. The unemployment rate is 0.9 percentage point below its level a year ago.

Manufacturing employment continues to expand and manufacturers added 11,000 jobs in June. After losing millions of manufacturing jobs in the years before and during the recession, the economy has added 504,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2010--the strongest growth for any 29-month period since April 1995. To continue the revival in manufacturing jobs and output, the President has proposed tax incentives for manufacturers, enhanced training for the workforce, and measures to create manufacturing hubs and discourage sending jobs overseas.

Other sectors with net job increases included temporary help services (+25,200), leisure and hospitality (+13,000), and wholesale trade (+8,800). Retail trade lost 5,400 jobs, government lost 4,000 jobs, and motion pictures and sound recording lost 4,200 jobs. Local governments shed 14,000 education jobs.

Reforming Unemployment Insurance to Protect Jobs and Incomes for American Workers

Katharine Abraham and Jason Furman — Mon, 18 Jun 2012 17:45:03 +0000

In his inaugural address, President Obama praised workers who “would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job.” But in most states, our unemployment insurance (UI) system discourages reducing hours in this way. A worker who is laid off has access to UI benefits that temporarily cover part of lost wages, but a worker whose hours are reduced has no such access, creating an incentive for layoffs while leaving workers who face an involuntary reduction in their hours with no protection or support. Today the Department of Labor is issuing guidance on new legislation that will help to address these problems. This guidance is part of a series of important UI reforms designed to contribute to job creation and job placement that the President proposed in the American Jobs Act, were signed into law in February and are now being implemented.

Programs in some states that allow workers whose hours have been cut to claim pro-rated UI benefits—so-called short-time compensation or work sharing programs—help to keep workers on the job. President Obama has long advocated the expansion of work sharing to help employers and their workers. It’s an idea that has been supported by economists across the political spectrum. The President’s proposal to expand the number of states with work-sharing programs, and increase employer awareness of the benefits of work sharing, was included in both his FY 2012 and 2013 Budgets, and in last September’s American Jobs Act. That proposal was signed into law on a bipartisan basis as part of the February extension of the payroll tax cut, and is being implemented today through guidance released by the Labor Department.

The premise of work sharing is simple: If a struggling employer puts in place a work sharing plan, a worker whose hours are reduced will have some of their lost pay made up through the UI system. This creates a true win-win situation for businesses and workers. By softening the effect of reduced hours on workers, it gives businesses a better chance of hanging on to their skilled employees during a rough period. With a full-strength workforce operating at reduced hours, businesses have the ability to scale up quickly when their economic situation improves.

Interest in work sharing grew during the recent recession, but fewer than half of the states operate a work sharing program, and employers may not know about work sharing even where it is available. The new law has three major components, all of which are designed to encourage states to implement a work sharing program and promote it among their employers. In states that already have a permanent work sharing program in place, the new law provides temporary Federal reimbursement for the benefits paid to workers under the state program. In states that do not, it offers a temporary Federal work sharing program to bridge the gap until the state can create a permanent program. Finally, states that create a new program or wish to expand an existing one will have access to $100 million in Federal implementation grants to help them jump-start program participation.

A number of states already have work sharing programs. In the state of Rhode Island, work sharing is a well-established part of the unemployment insurance system. Senator Jack Reed has been a strong advocate of the program at a national level, and was the lead sponsor of the legislation that formed the basis for the President’s proposal. In Rhode Island, employers are well-informed about the benefits of the program, and can access it with a minimum of hassle. Work sharing played a crucial role in Rhode Island in the recent recession: an average of over 4,000 people per week claimed benefits under work sharing programs in the state during 2009, preventing unemployment from rising even higher. Last fall, Deputy Secretary of Labor Seth Harris visited the Pilgrim Screw Corporation, a fastener manufacturing firm that used work sharing to avoid laying off 35 workers in their Rhode Island facility. Said Pilgrim’s President Geoff Grove at the time, “The work-sharing program in Rhode Island has been a lifeline for Pilgrim. It’s helped a small manufacturing business like ours to maintain the institutional knowledge and skills that are crucial for our success.”

As the experience of many states including Rhode Island, and of many employers including Pilgrim has shown, work sharing can give businesses and workers added flexibility to make it through tough times.

The Employment Situation in May

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 01 Jun 2012 13:34:33 +0000

Problems in the job market were long in the making and will not be solved overnight. The economy lost jobs for 25 straight months beginning in February 2008, and over 8 million jobs were lost as a result of the Great Recession. We are still fighting back from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Today we learned that the economy has added private sector jobs for 27 straight months, for a total of 4.3 million payroll jobs over that period. The economy is growing but it is not growing fast enough. BLS’s establishment survey shows that private businesses added 82,000 jobs last month, and overall non-farm payroll employment rose by 69,000. The unemployment rate ticked up from 8.1 percent in April to 8.2 percent in May, according to BLS’s household survey. However, the labor force participation rate increased 0.2 percentage point to 63.8 percent, and employment rose by 422,000 according to the household survey.

There is much more work that remains to be done to repair the damage caused by the financial crisis and deep recession that began at the end of 2007. Just like last year at this time, our economy is facing serious headwinds, including the crisis in Europe and a spike in gas prices that hit American families’ finances over the past months. It is critical that we continue the President’s economic policies that are helping us dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession.

In the American Jobs Act and in the State of the Union Address, the President put forward a number of proposals to create jobs and strengthen the economy, including proposals that would put teachers back in the classroom and cops on the beat, and put our nation’s construction workers back on the job rebuilding our nation’s infrastructure. The President has also proposed a “To-Do List ” of actions that Congress should take to create jobs and help restore middle-class security. This includes eliminating tax incentives to ship jobs overseas, cutting red tape so responsible homeowners can refinance, giving small businesses that increase employment or wages a 10 percent income tax credit, investing in affordable clean energy, and helping returning veterans find work. The President is in Minneapolis today to announce a new executive action that will establish private sector partnerships to help military service members acquire recognized occupational credentials—as welders, as machinists, and ultimately in a broader range of occupations. These partnerships will help service members find private sector jobs once they leave the military, and they will help firms in manufacturing and other industries that need workers to fill their vacant positions.

Manufacturing employment continues to expand and manufacturers added 12,000 jobs in May. After losing millions of good manufacturing jobs in the years before and during the recession, the economy has added 495,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2010--the strongest growth for any 28-month period since April 1995. To continue the revival in manufacturing jobs and output, the President has proposed tax incentives for manufacturers, enhanced training for the workforce, and measures to create manufacturing hubs and encourage the growing trend of insourcing.

Other sectors with net job increases included education and health services (+46,000), transportation and warehousing (+35,600), wholesale trade (+15,900), and temporary help services (+9,200). Construction lost 28,000 jobs, accounting services lost 14,000 jobs, government lost 13,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality lost 9,000 jobs. State and local governments shed 8,000 jobs, mostly in education.

As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.

The Employment Situation in April

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 04 May 2012 13:30:26 +0000

Today’s employment report provides further evidence that the economy is continuing to heal from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, but much more remains to be done to repair the damage caused by the financial crisis and the deep recession. It is critical that we continue the economic policies that are helping us dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began at the end of 2007. President Obama has said that prosperity in America has always come from a strong and growing middle class. He has made clear that getting back to where we were is not enough. We need to do more, which is why the President has laid out his blueprint for an American economy that is built to last and will continue to urge Congress to act to do more to grow the economy and create jobs.

Private employer payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs in April, and overall non-farm payroll employment rose by 115,000. The unemployment rate dipped from 8.2% in March to 8.1% in April, according to the household survey. Though labor force participation fell over the month according to the household survey, since August the unemployment rate has fallen by 1.0 percentage point, from 9.1% to 8.1%, and nearly three-quarters of that drop is attributable to increased employment.

Despite adverse shocks that have created headwinds for economic growth the economy has added private sector jobs for 26 straight months, for a total of 4.25 million payroll jobs over that period. With upward revisions of 65,000 jobs to the past two months’ employment reports, in the first quarter of 2012 private employment expanded by 697,000 jobs, the largest quarterly increase since the first quarter of 2006. So far this year, 827,000 private sector jobs have been added, on net.

Manufacturing continues to be a bright spot and added 16,000 jobs in April. After losing millions of good manufacturing jobs in the years before and during the recession, the economy has added 489,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2010. To continue the revival in manufacturing jobs and output, the President has proposed tax incentives for manufacturers, enhanced training for the workforce, and measures to create manufacturing hubs and encourage the growing trend of insourcing.

Other sectors with net job increases included wholesale and retail trade (+36,700), professional and business services (+62,000), and education and health services (+23,000). Transportation and warehousing lost 16,600 jobs, and construction lost 2,000 jobs. Local governments shed 12,000 jobs, mostly in education.

As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.

Chairman Alan Krueger Discusses Reversing the Middle-Class Jobs Deficit

David Vandivier — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 22:31:42 +0000

At 9:15 EDT on Thursday, April 26, 2012, President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Alan B. Krueger delivered remarks on “Reversing the Middle-Class Jobs Deficit” at the Columbia University in New York City, New York.

In his prepared remarks, Chairman Krueger said:

I will address problems in the U.S. labor market and President Obama’s blueprint to fix them. My theme is that it will take a concerted national effort to reverse the problems that have been building in the job market for decades, and, although much more work needs to be done; we have made progress in the last few years.

Krueger added that:

The United States has considerable strengths that should help us to reverse the middle-class jobs deficit. It is imperative for policymakers to develop and promote these strengths to create an expanding middle class and provide more opportunity for more young people, regardless of their family backgrounds. As President Obama has stressed, this is the defining issue of our times. We face a critical moment in which we can pursue a path that leads to a more durable economy and growing opportunities for all Americans, or we can return to the policies that eroded the middle class and tilted an ever-increasing share of income into the hands of a fortunate few, who were allowed to play by their own rules.

Read Chairman Krueger’s remarks and charts.

See and download the related charts on slideshare.

Watch the Launch of the Center on Global Economic Governance Live

David Vandivier — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 12:40:00 +0000

Ed. note: This event has ended.

At 9:15 am EDT watch President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Alan B. Krueger, deliver a keynote address on “Reversing the Middle-Class Jobs Deficit” at Columbia University’s new Center on Global Economic Governance. Chairman Krueger’s will discuss the three main jobs crises the country faced when President Obama took office and what his Administration is doing to address these imbalances.

Alan Kruger to Speak on Reversing the Middle-Class Jobs Deficit

David Vandivier — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 19:16:25 +0000

Thursday, April 26: Alan B. Krueger, Chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) will deliver a speech on Reversing the Middle-Class Jobs Deficit.

WASHINGTON – At 9:15 am EDT on Thursday, April 26, 2012, President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Alan B. Krueger, will deliver a keynote address at Columbia University’s new Center on Global Economic Governance.

Chairman Krueger’s remarks titled “Reversing the Middle-Class Jobs Deficit,” will discuss the three main jobs crises the country faced when President Obama took office and what his Administration is doing to address these imbalances.

This event will be live-streamed on the White House Council of Economic Advisers blog and linked to from WhiteHouse.gov/live.

WHO:             Alan B. Krueger, Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers

WHAT:          Remarks on "Reversing the Middle-Class Jobs Deficit"

WHEN:          9:15 am EDT, Thursday, April 26, 2012

WHERE:       Rotunda, Low Memorial Library, Columbia University, New York, NY

The Employment Situation in March

Alan B. Krueger — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 13:30:33 +0000

There is more work to be done, but today’s employment report provides further evidence that the economy is continuing to recover from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. It is critical that we continue to make smart investments that strengthen our economy and lay a foundation for long-term middle class job growth so we can continue to dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began at the end of 2007.

Employer payrolls increased by 121,000 jobs in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ establishment survey. The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.2% in March, according to the household survey. However, employment was virtually unchanged in the household survey.

Both surveys indicate the continuing challenges facing construction workers, as a result of the collapse in homebuilding following the bursting of the housing bubble. The unemployment rate for construction workers stands at 17.2%, more than double the national average. Because of weak private sector demand for construction investment and the nation’s continuing need for improved infrastructure, including maintenance of existing highways, bridges, and ports, the President’s Budget proposal to increase and modernize the nation’s infrastructure is well targeted to support the economy today and in the future.

Despite adverse shocks that have created headwinds for economic growth, including weak construction investment, the economy has added private sector jobs for 25 straight months, for a total of 4.1 million jobs over that period.

Manufacturing continues to be a bright spot and added 37,000 jobs in March. After losing millions of good manufacturing jobs in the years before and during the recession, the economy has added 466,000 manufacturing jobs in the past 25 months—the strongest growth for any 25 month period since September 1995. To continue the revival in manufacturing jobs and output, the President has proposed tax incentives for manufacturers, enhanced training for the workforce, and measures to create manufacturing hubs.

Other sectors with net job increases included leisure and hospitality (+39,000), professional and business services (+31,000), and financial activities (+15,000). Retail trade lost 33,800 jobs, construction lost 7,000 jobs, and government lost 1,000 jobs. State and local government job losses have moderated in recent months. Almost three-quarters of the slower job growth in March relative to February was due to slower growth in temporary help services and health care and day care services.

As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.